As Turkey gears up for general elections on May 14, thousands of Turkish political exiles residing in Germany are anxiously awaiting the outcome. The number of refugees from Turkey in Germany has increased dramatically since 2016, when a failed coup attempt prompted a heavy crackdown on dissenting voices. It is estimated that Germany hosts 3 million people from the Turkish diaspora, and according to the German Ministry of the Interior, more than 21,000 Turkish citizens have been granted asylum or refugee status since the failed coup.

For many exiles, the chance to return to Turkey or even to visit would be a great consolation if the opposition is able to win the election. However, the situation is more complicated for those who have received political asylum, as they may lose their status if they return to Turkey.

One academic who left her country due to her political opposition to the Erdogan government says that even if she can return to visit, there are so many things that she gave up when she decided to leave her country and start from scratch, and that is something that she always drags with her. She and others like her are hoping that a change in leadership will bring a return to a sense of security and a common future in Turkey.

Salim Cevik, a professor specializing in human rights in Turkey, believes that the flow of political dissidents could stop if Erdogan loses the elections, but even after that, establishing the rule of law will take time, and those with court cases and verdicts against them won’t immediately return.

As the election approaches, the Turkish diaspora in Germany is expecting significant changes in the political landscape of their home country, and they are watching closely to see what the future holds.